^↑ NAVIGATING     
    changing WORLDS  ^{↑ ↓}

WorldS   RELENTLESSLY
moving toward
unimagined futures #uf #tln #rlaexp   ↑   ↓ …

If you doubt this ↑ assertion
consider
the impact of key events —
19th century ::: 20th century —
on daily lives
around the world
— these events alone barely scratch the surface.

Major changes never
come with
an instruction booklet. #fastp

“At some unmarked point …
we imperceptibly moved out of the Modern Age
and into a new, as yet nameless, era”

Landmarks of Tomorrow (circa 1957) by Peter Drucker

The INDIVIDUAL
in entrepreneurial society


“This is who I am”




100 Years of Car Design: An Overview



Our idea of process


How is it possible … ?


What exists is getting OLD


Conditions for survival


Long years of PROFOUND change


Intelligence, Information, Thinking
as a “system” (PDF)


What’s Wrong with Economics?:
A Primer for the Perplexed
Dismal economics


The Big Con:
How the Consulting Industry
Weakens Our Businesses,
Infantilizes Our Governments, and
Warps Our Economies

What does this evolution ↑ mean for you?

Image Thinking ↓

The explorer

#ewtl

What thinking is needed?

#wlh work-life horizons ^© → #wle work-life evolution ^©

#wlh = work-life horizons ^©
are a sub-category of
“time-life navigation” ^© #tln
and “work-life evolution” ^©

↑ … Dealing with
risk and uncertainty ↓

Text formatting is an
attention-DIRECTING TOOL #adt

#fastp ↓
↑ … Finding and selecting
the pieces of the puzzle ↓

#sda ↓

Most mistakes in THINKING
are mistakes in perception:
seeing only part of the situation

#ewtl

The thought fragments
and thought clusters
on this page
are relevant to
navigating a changing world. #tln

They are more than things to just READ. ↓


To be other than a waste of time ↓

↑ ↓ NAVIGATING #wlh needS to be
made operational ↓

within and across time dimensions.


But first there needs to be
“adequate” ecological awareness. #ea


Many of the thought clusters
contain links to
other closely related #mmit #sda
thought clusters







Time spans ::: Horizon evolution work


finding and selecting the pieces of the puzzle ↑ ↓

↑ People change over such a long time span ↓

Teach Yourself to Think : Basic Processes —
Broad/Specific, General/Detail ::: Projection ::: Attention Directing :::
Recognition and Fit ::: Movement and Alternatives

… again, before undertaking action,
“adequate” ecological awareness is needed ↓

AWARENESS is an essential FOUNDATION for DOING ↓

Where to jump next?


What we do today
needs to ‘crack doors’
toward tomorrowS

FoundationS ↓ for futureS directed decisionS

Drucker: a political/social ecologist
Books by
Peter Drucker ::: Walter Wriston ::: Bob Buford ::: Rick Warren

#hotw
History Of The World In Two Hours

Last 15 minutes — A pivotable event
in human history (Columbian Exchange)

More food → more calories → more energy

Population doubles to 900 million within three centuries
Power shifts to the “West”
Population explosion of the 20th century
November 18, 2022 world population reached 8 billion people

Tomorrow always arrives
and it is always different

↑ America Before Columbus


The TransformationS: From YesterdayS toward TomorrowS


THE EDUCATIONAL REVOLUTION:
the meaning and impact of knowledge FOR society


The Search for Intelligent Life Is About to Get a Lot More Interesting

«§§§»

How is it possible
to WORK TOWARD
#horizonS
that aren’t on YOUR mental radar

at the right pointS in time?

When is the right point time, the necessary point in time,
the adequate point in time to be able to prepare and pivot,
or the best point in time?

↑ Consider major historical events
in combination with various global locations

“THE BEST TIME TO PLANT A TREE
WAS 20 YEARS AGO.

THE SECOND BEST TIME
IS NOW.”
Chinese Proverb

No two people ever read the same book

Dealing with risk and uncertainty

“Tools” will be needed



They have to be identified and acquired.

Information is a tool as are thinking skills.

Information: IIT ::: Six frames ::: The White Hat ::: Executives need

Tools extend human capabilities ↓

#sda The brain can only SEE ↑ ↓ what it is prepared to SEE

We live in the world WE SEE ::: The centering of mental patterns

Parallel thinking

#fastp ↓
↑ … finding and selecting
the pieces of the puzzle

The New Society



Judgement required

Why didn’t somebody SHOW me?


Dealing with risk and uncertainty

Self-development … something once gained
can’t be taken away

Apple™ Freeform

Before long
new puzzle pieces emerge
while existing pieces change, age, and disappear ↓

The Transformations



The Grail Knight : “But choose wisely,
for while the true Grail will bring you “life”,
the false Grail will take it from you”.

That knowledge has become THE resource …

Ludecy

#wlh
Making a living is no longer enough,
work has to make a life ↓

Average life-expectancy of an organization

#tln #fastp Everyday thinking — knowing what to do


Real GDP

#worldview     People of high #effectiveness
are conspicuous by their absence
in executive jobs continue

AMZ What makes an effective executive?

What Executives Should Remember ::: html ::: AMZ

A road ahead — connect, connect, connect

#tln #knowledge2
From Knowledge to KnowledgeS

Knowledge exists only in application.

Libraries and schools are concerned with information

#wlh
Replace the quest ↑ for achievement or success
with the quest for contribution.

#tln #wlh
Buford said Drucker passed on
three questions everyone should ask themselves during

different seasons of life:

“Who am I, now?” “Where do I belong?”

“What’s my contribution now?”

“Who I want to be tomorrow” — Thomas Crown 2:23

The Josh Abrams story

THE ALTERNATIVE TO TYRANNY

“For almost nothing
in our educational system
PREPARES people for …

THE REALITY

in which THEY will live, work.
and become effective.” PFD

Political/social ecologist


Topics vs. realities ::: larger view ↓




“Is it then
not only astonishing
but also absurd
that THINKING is not
the core subject
in all education? …
totally neglected” explore

Most mistakes in THINKING
are mistakes in perception

Choice of ATTENTION areas

The Black Cylinder Experiment

ATTENTION directing frameworks

Hierarchical institutions vs. social networks —
as the true sources of power
and drivers of change? — Niall Ferguson

THE ALTERNATIVE TO TYRANNY

#ptf Civilization: The West and the Rest at Amazon.com

Charles Kuralt’s America ::: Alistair Cooke’s America

The Vietnam War: An Intimate History

The New Pluralism

#ptf Amazon: Principles for Dealing with
the Changing World Order —
Why Nations Succeed or Fail by Ray Dalio

Kara Swisher:
A Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Predicts the Future —
and What He Sees Is Concerning.
Ray Dalio discusses the economic and political
mechanics of a changing world order

Google: “what are the big social issues of today”

Every social problem is an opportunity

Amazon.com: Thomas Friedman books ::: NYT



Amazon.com: The World Is Flat :
A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century

Amazon.com: Thank You for Being Late:
An Optimist's Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations

The future of the planet
depends on the
perceptions — and
the horizons —
between OUR ears

“Practical men who believe themselves
to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence,
are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.

Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air,
are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler
of a few years back” — John Maynard Keynes

Management Worldview(S)

No one has any relevant experience here ↓
and reality does’t care

“The quality of our future
will depend entirely on
the quality of our thinking” — #EdB

“Applies on a personal level,
a community level
and on the world level” EdB

Think! Before It's Too Late

#ptf Dealing with risk and uncertainty

#ptf We know only two things about the future … (continue)

Intelligence, Information, Thinking #pdf

#wlh #ewtl Operacy — the thinking that goes into doing …



The INDIVIDUAL in entrepreneurial society

Imagining Navigation Course Changes

From Knowledge to KnowledgeS ::: Knowledge and Technology #technology #pdf

Knowledge Economy and Knowledge Polity !!!
And with knowledge becoming the key resource,
there is only a world economy

About technology

Information challenges ::: #41 Strategic decisions ↑ ::: Six Thinking Hats

What would happen

if …

a region (North America, EU, ASEAN etc.)
a nation, a sub-nation, an organization,
city, ethnic group or other group of people

were satisfied

repeating last week

over and over and over and over?

Where in the world
is this stagnation
the prevailing reality?

The INDIVIDUAL in entrepreneurial society

From Knowledge to KnowledgeS ::: Knowledge and Technology #pdf

#ptf The World: A Brief Introduction — Amazon

Preface

PART I: THE ESSENTIAL HISTORY :::
From the Thirty Years War to the Outbreak of World War I (1618-1914) :::
The Long Shadow: the Great War and the Twentieth Century :::
From World War II Through World War I (1914-1945) :::
The Cold War (1945 - 1989) ::: The Post-Cold War Era (1989 -Present) :::

PART II: REGIONS OF THE WORLD ::: Europe :::
East Asia and the Pacific ::: Asia :::
The Middle East ::: Africa ::: The Americas :::

PART III: THE GLOBAL ERA ::: Globalization :::
Terrorism and Counterterrorism :::
Nuclear Proliferation ::: Climate Change ::: Migration :::
The Internet, Cyberspace, and Cybersecurity :::
Global Health ::: Trade and Investment :::
Currency and Monetary Policy ::: Development :::

PART IV: ORDER AND DISORDER :::
Sovereignty, Self-Determination, and Balance of Power :::
Alliances and Coalitions ::: International Society :::
War Between Countries :::
Internal Instability and War Within Countries :::
The Liberal World Order ::: Preface

 

Is reality divided into conceptual “islands”
similar to the parts and chapters of a book?

Obviously not,
but we still need
attention-directing frameworks.

 

Social ecology ↑ ↓ #soceco #apta

 

The future that has already happened

 

 

If a book
similar to The World ↑ had been
researched and written
in the 1930s, 1950s, or 1970s,
how useful would it be
to those
attempting to navigate their lives
toward positive horizons
in the 1990s, 2010s, today
or tomorrowS?

 

Kevin Kelly: 103 Bits of Advice I Wish I Had Known

 

We know only two things about the future … (continue)

About time ↓

About hashtags (#) on this page

#ptf = predicting the future

The road ahead?

… finding and selecting
the pieces of the puzzle

A few people
(not very many)
higher up your
LIFE
food chain
may be OBSERVING
your #worldview
and behavior …

people decisions are the real control of an organization

Who might some of these observers be? Stalin, Hitler, Le Duan …

“You have to produce results
in the short term. But you also have to
produce results in the long term.

And the long term is not simply
the adding up of short terms.” — Druckerism

Aim high

#sda Most mistakes in thinking
are
mistakes in perception
continue

Seeing only
part of the situation ↑ ↓

Dealing with
risk and uncertainty ↑ ↓

An #idea
can never
make the best use
of available information
because …

«§§§»

How is it POSSIBLE to

work toward





unexpected #horizons …

Books by
Peter Drucker ::: Walter Wriston ::: Bob Buford ::: Rick Warren

… that aren’t on your mental radar …

… at the right pointS in time?

«§§§»

#wlh
“You must take
integrating responsibility
for putting YOURSELF
into the BIG PICTURE.”

#horizons
#whtmal = work has to make a life
#bp = big picture #self-development
#ir #lter #dtao #operacy #trade Pluralism

#bp #fastp #lter

What Executives Should Remember
AMAZON ::: html

Aim high

#ewtl


From Knowledge to KnowledgeS ::: Knowledge and Technology #pdf

Information challenges ::: #41 Strategic decisions ↑ ::: Six Thinking Hats

These ↑ #horizons
are YOUR means
for making YOUR futureS —
requires different time usage
including
some different
“ecological awareness” here

#worldview and #horizons overlap … worldview
provides the “mental space”
for choosing horizons

#horizons
What’s the outer limit of your concern? …

… Tomorrow, next week, your “life-time,”
the futureS of the planet?

#lter #horizons
Who you really are
and
who you might become … ?

«§§§»

Ideas, thoughts, “brain addresses” on this site
can be individually copied, edited, and organized
in a sequence
that fits your aspirations and horizons

«§§§»

Reality is not linear
so don’t expect this page/site
to be linear —
where all of the pieces
are in one place

#worldview
Pick a time and place in history
then consider
how you could
integrate yourself
into the existing situation
and what strategic intent
should you pursue … ?

… the overnight leap … from Abraham’s time


Human Evolution 101


“Homo erectus appeared about 2 million years ago
and, in several early migrations,
spread throughout Africa (where it is dubbed H.ergaster)
and Eurasia.” — Wikipedia

Technology: what really matters



“Evolution is very slow, very messy,
very wasteful and is incapable of
making the best use of available resources.” #EdB

“Scientists say planet in midst of
sixth mass extinction,
Earth’s wildlife running out of
places to live” —CBS

“Language is an encyclopedia of ignorance” ↑

Do we need a new theory of evolution?

Your family tree ↑ ↓

Practical Thinking

What you have others want and will struggle to get more

#uf Dealing with risk and uncertainty

History of the World in Two Hours (audio playback 7 min.)

History hasn’t come to an end …

↑ Imagine someone, somewhere
in an earlier time
trying to figure out
what to do
with the rest of their life.

AWARENESS — The Road Ahead

We can only work TOWARD
the thingS on our mental radar ↓
at a point in time

“Most mistakes in thinking ↑ are
mistakes in perception”

Connect, connect, connect …

“The mind can SEE ↑
only
what it is
prepared to SEE”

“Once you SEE something
you can not UNSEE it” ↓ continue

“Most mistakes in thinking ↑ are
mistakes in perception”


#sit ↑ → … → #JUDGEMENT ↓
#seek #avoid #means ← to get other things

Intelligence, Information, Thinking pdf ↓

Attention-directing frameworks

#self-development

a.k.a.
#tln #sda #uf Time-life navigation ^© ↓

#Trade ↓

The Ascent of Money ↑ ::: WPedia ::: AMZ ::: YT

The Square and the Tower:
Networks and Power, from the Freemasons to Facebook

America Before Columbus

The Great Degeneration

#lter The Second Curve or Why bother? ↓

Outliers ::: Finishing Well

From Knowledge to KnowledgeS

Management and the World’s Work

What Executives Should Remember ::: html ::: AMZ

THEY don’t want YOU to SEE!

TLN Insights

What thinking is needed?

Time-life navigation concept map

“You must take
integrating responsibility
for putting YOURSELF
into the BIG PICTURE.”

#wlh #horizons
#whtmal = work has to make a life
#bp = big picture #self-development
#ir #lter #dtao #operacy #trade Pluralism

What Executives Should Remember ::: html ::: AMZ

… the real pattern of economic activity

#worldview
What exists is getting old ↑ ↓ #bp

The Five Deadly Sins

Unimagined futureS ↑ ↓ are near receding #horizonS #ptf

#ewtl


information challenges ↑

#horizons
↑ Making a living is no longer enough ↑.
“Work” has to make a life ↓. continue #whtmal

… ↑ finding and selecting the pieces of the puzzle ↓ #fastp

“Life is based on
beliefs, expectations and assumptions.” ↑ ↓ EDB

The explorer

Attention directing frameworks ::: Think! Before It's Too Late ::: The Six Thinking Hats

Knowledge-Based Management

This page offers:

#bp #fastp A brainroad for designing a way forward ↓ …


#fastp
… an evolving life action #work-approach and work plan

that circumvents

your history, your current #situation or your current #worldview

that imprison you in the past #psdapa

 

#Work-approach: Identify and record the thought-fragments ↑ ↓ —
with their implied #horizons translated for YOU ↓ —
that you're willing to work toward
in your life — within time. #adt #apta

 

 

#36 #wlh #horizons #seek #means
“Those who want to live a #fulfilling life —
who want to feel as if there is some purpose
in their being on this earth —
will have to learn
to MANAGE THEMSELVES” ↓ PFD

 

“They will have to accept the fact
that it is their own responsibility
to find meaningful work
that builds on their strengths and values”
PFD #svm.

 

Connect, connect, connect

 

Managing Oneself overview on steroids

 

Seeking guidance?

Imagining Navigation Course Changes

Who Is An Executive?

Every knowledge worker
in modern organization
is an “executive” if,
by virtue of
his position or knowledge,
he is responsible for
a contribution
that materially affects
the capacity of the organization
to perform and to obtain results. continue

The INDIVIDUAL in entrepreneurial society

How can the INDIVIDUAL survive?

“One can … never be sure
what the knowledge worker thinks—and yet
THINKING !!! is her/his specific work;
it is his/her “doing.”” ↓

Within ↑ REALITY there are recursive needs for:

SEEING → broad

SEEING → the road ahead

Thinking broad and thinking detailed

Dense reading and dense listening

SEEING → that REALITY
is not controlled by
any system
including an education system —
now or in the future … ↓ #ptf

#worldview #bp #ptf Druckerism ↓
“We know only two things

about the future ↑.

It cannot be known.

It will be different

from what exists now

and from what we now expect”
#worldview ::: The Second Curve ::: Water Logic ↓

↑ … projecting your current work or current life #situation
into the future
is very likely to imprison you in the past
e.g. The Bomber Mafia ↓

TomorrowS
… you can’t get there
directly from here
… so you can’t get there by
piling up more todayS —
even with some adjustments.
The challenge:
‘To boldly go (some) where (valuable)
no person has gone before’?
e.g., In 1910 no one had gone to 1920 or 1930 or 1940.

#ewtl

NAVIGATING ↑ ↓ is done by the human mind —
Intelligence Information Thinking — (#PDF) #apta
PLUS
why thinking is so very important

Why bother?

Introduction to Human Evolution ::: Imagine a time so vast …
How many species? ::: Water logic

Try reflecting on the daily and longer-term lives ↑
over thousands of years — up to the industrial revolution

Human migration and evolution ↑ what’s driving them?

A change in the human condition ::: Landmarks of Tomorrow

The Second Curve by Charles Handy

Finishing Well ::: Charles Kuralt’s America

the road to Davy’s Bar —
missing the turn to the future


#second-curve #connections #worldview #horizons #ptf



#YouTube ::: larger 1 ::: larger 2

WHAT EXISTS IS GETTING OLD ↓

The Second Curve ↑ ↓

What Executives Should Remember ::: html ::: AMZ

… the real pattern of economic activity

Water Logic

The Five Deadly Sins

#bp Long years of profound changes ↑ ↓

You don’t know what you’re going to be doing next

Management: 21st Century   ~   Next Society

The Economy ↑ ↓

Knowledge Dimensions ↑

A work approach ↑ ↓
that is adequate to the challengeS ahead
is needed #lms #ams #work-approach ↓

The danger of too much planning — the need
for being flexible and ready to seize the right opportunities
when they come …

The #wisdom learning curve

Boredom is one of those challenges

#ewtl


There are things that happen
between two points in time
and things that are happening over time … ↑ ↓

What exists is getting old

If you can see the road ahead …

THEY don’t want you to see!

↑ finding and selecting the pieces of the puzzle #fastp

Knowledge-Based Management

«§§§»

To know something,
to really understand
something important,

one must look at it
from sixteen different angles #sda #apta



Most mistakes in thinking are

mistakes in perception #sda

#worldview ↓



The World: A Brief Introduction Amazon ::: Preface #pdf

Allocating one’s life ::: Managing Oneself :::
Executive realities #work-approach

BEWARE OF THE PRISONs OF THE PAST

If

you

don’t

design

Alternative life directions

(Why you NEED many competing patterns ::: broad ::: #design :::

imagining navigation course changes ::: early career work :::

insights ::: why bother? ::: self-development :::

managing oneself — a revolution in human affairs ::: Peter Drucker)

your own life

then

someone else

(#worldview #hotw ::: The Vanishing East ::: IBM ::: guttersnipes !!! :::

Easy prey !!! ::: #28 #ea #fastp Trans/Tribal ::: Wars !!!)

What’s happening to America's middle class? And the implications?

Can workers really “fix” the problem? (Kodak, Blackberry, Sears … ) #pdf

will

do it

for you


me → #wgobcd → Vietnam-era Vet and former

Fortune 200 Fixer and General Manager of Discontinued Operations ↑

#wgobcd #surprises

“If you don’t design your own life plan,
chances are you’ll fall into someone else’s plan.
And guess what they have planned for you?
Not much.” ― Jim Rohn

Alternative life directions

«§§§»

What happens
when the world changes
and you don’t?

BEWARE OF THE PRISONs OF THE PAST → our inheritance ↓

Circa 1958 ish ↑ “No one born after the turn of our century (1900)
has ever known anything
but a world uprooting its foundations,
overturning its values
and toppling its idols.

No one younger than this century
has known anything
but an age of revolution.

In the political, the social, the economic,
even the cultural sphere,
the revolutions of our time
have been revolutions “against”
rather than revolutions “for.”” The New Frontiers (The Marshall Plan →)


A panoramic view of Ottoman era Istanbul in the 19th century



VS.
Handbook for the Positive Revolution
… avoiding a system that makes intelligent people
stagnate and ineffective

↑ Principles ::: Methods ::: Power
The Principles : Effectiveness ::: Constructive (design) :::
Respect ::: Self-Improvement ::: Contribution

Effectiveness: Lord heart of the matter

The four elements of Commando Spirit :
Courage, Determination, Unselfishness,
and Cheerfulness in the face of adversity small worlds ::: Aldo Kane

«§§§»

Thinking conclusions ↑ ↓
based on something familiar
are likely to be
associated with
yesterday’S reality continue

Outer world — inner world

«§§§»

Imagine your life existing within the world of
1910, 1935, 1950, 1960, 1970 or …,
how would you devote your time
to creating your future
without basing your actions
on an ill-fated extrapolation of the past?

BEWARE OF THE PRISONs OF THE PAST

We know only two things about the future (continue)

Why you NEED many competing patterns ↑ ::: broad worldview within perception ↑

The danger in excessive emphasis on
rigid
acceptances and rejections — judgement

«§§§»

This page provides a compass and

a unique breadcrumb trail

for SEEING an evolving life

among other lives

in changing, unpredictable small worlds

over time

If you focus your attention
on anyone’s life
at a point in time
you will see their small worldS
connected to other small worldS
through degrees of separation

↑ Can be seen in Rick Steves’ Europe #youtube

This page is
a time-investment menu
and thought-scape for

identifying (seeing) and exploring horizons —

alternative horizons to consider

Look north, look south … note what you SEE #adt continue

There are no answers
only alternatives and
constantly receding horizons

#horizons
… work has to make a life continue ↑ ↓

but how?

Successful careers are not planned … continue ↑ ↓ #ptf

We are … what we do — repeatedly ( Groundhog Day )

#horizons From Knowledge to KnowledgeS

#evidence-wall and timeline #iewt → larger ↓


#ewtl


If you can see the road, life is easier continue

Your thinking, choices, decisions are determined by what you’ve “ SEEN”

FREEDOM

Build on islands (a.k.a. small worlds) of health and strength

What, exactly, will we remember years from now?

Memories from people who lived through major historical events —
World War II, the Vietnam War, and others —
offer a clue for how we’ll look back on the pandemic.



We know only two things about the future (continue)



Why you NEED many competing patterns ↑ ↓


«§§§»


Along the road of time there are new realities
that create a new reality
which is followed by another new reality
followed by another new reality.

New realities have an impact on an old reality and old realities.
Transnational/Tribal #ea #fastp #worldview #connections

Part of a new reality is that there will be people around the world
who are/were trapped in prior realities at various points in time.

Circa 1958 ish ↑ “No one born after the turn of our century (1900)
has ever known anything
but a world uprooting its foundations,
overturning its values
and toppling its idols.

No one younger than this century
has known anything
but an age of revolution.

In the political, the social, the economic,
even the cultural sphere,
the revolutions of our time
have been revolutions “against”
rather than revolutions “for”” The New Frontiers

#ihor ↓

Fragmentary evidence of
changing worldS may be seen in museums around the world —
at various pointS in time. All worldS are small worldS
Karen Blixen : Out of Africa
What Goes On Behind Closed Doors #wgobcd ↓

#evidence-wall ↓

The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power, from the Freemasons to Facebook at Amazon

Importance of thinking → Lovers in Auschwitz, Reunited 72 Years Later. He Had One Question. #pdf ← WWII

“Only the paranoid #survive” — boredom? ::: From Progress to Innovation #pdf

#lter #hotw History of the World in Two Hours (first 2 and last 13 minutes)

The origins of native Americans:
First Face of America

What happened to America before Columbus? #youtube #worldview

What happened to the empires in world history? GONE #worldview

"David Reynolds" historian YouTube #youtube #worldview

The Asian Century

This page and it’s linked pages
are a foundation for creating life work -books.

images: single cell 1 ::: single cell 2 ::: tree of life ::: history of life ::: stages

Did you #SEE and #NOTE the patterns (#connect #pattern #patterns) of change? ↑ —


The universe and our worldS are not stable nor static but dynamic and
non-linear — tomorrowS aren’t extrapolations of yesterdayS

Even the variety of universe “conceptualizations” ↓ are of very recent origins

#08 “It is almost frightening
how fast the obvious of yesteryear
is turning incomprehensible” continue

On the road ahead ↑, there will be multiple, multiple new realitieS ↓

In less than 150 years, (circa 1988)
MANAGEMENT
has transformed
the social and economic fabric
of the world’s developed countries. … continue
#sop The Spirit of Performance #pdf

Hong Kong more recent

Google: McKinsey Asia

The New Pluralism ::: Up to poverty ::: Luther, Machiavelli, and the Salmon

What is the social impact of your participation and contribution? ↑ ↓

How will your children and grandchildren
know to
and
know how to
integrate their lives
into this
unfolding and unpredictable reality?

Does being just another job-holder count?

How can the individual survive? continue

We live in the world we see continue

In a relatively short period of time
humanity has moved from a world
where people had to be totally self-sufficient
to a world becoming more and more dependent on
a society of interdependent organizations,
but these organizations are not permanent.

#iecs We know only two things about the future:
It cannot be known.
It will be different from what exists now and from what we now expect

The future that has already happened #ptf

Living in an Age of Overlap

Intelligence Information Thinking (#iit)

BROAD worldview

From Knowledge to KnowledgeS ::: Knowledge and Technology #pdf

The Emerging Knowledge Society
> Knowledge Economy and Knowledge Polity
> School and Education as Society’s Center
> The Competitive Knowledge Economy
> How Can Government Function?

The Manager and the Moron ::: Luther, Machiavelli … ::: Transnational/Tribal

… #worldview to RESPONSIBILITY based organization ::: #article titles

The mothership

What Executives Should Remember ::: html ::: AMZ

… the real pattern of economic activity

↑ larger view and additional connections

The Five Deadly Sins

Try mentally running this ↑ backward and forward through time !!! — 1800 - 2050

#Cities ::: Supply chain management ::: Last mile

Even organizations that normally are long-lived

In a transition period, the number of people in need always grows

Easy prey !!!

The English Constitution ::: Lombard Street

Supplemental awareness

BEWARE OF THE PRISONs OF THE PAST ↑ ↓

Real GDP (gross domestic product) trend 1950 - 2020 ↓

Economic growth ↑ is linked to interest rates ↓ Central banks running scared

Stock prices vs. economic growth. ↓ both are linked to interest rates ↑

Per capita GDP ↓

“Economists never know anything until twenty years later.

There are no slower learners than economists.

There is no greater obstacle to learning
than to be the prisoner
of totally invalid but dogmatic theories.

The economists are where the theologians were
in 1300: prematurely dogmatic” — Frontiers of Management

“The customer never buys
what you think you sell.
And you don’t know it.
That’s why it’s so difficult
to differentiate yourself.” — Druckerisms

Potential customers are somewhere else ↓

Population distribution by location ↓

Production ::: Larger view of the image above

larger view of the image above ↑

Ports

larger

larger 1 ::: larger 2

What needs doing around here?
A local view from Google Earth ↓

Try searching Google for "largest cities" then see
what do they look like on the map in overview and in street view.

Along the road to Terra Alta ↓

Urban world: The shifting global business landscape

Knowledge: Its Economics and Its Productivity

Economic content and structure landscape

High tech is living in the nineteenth century continue

futile heroic efforts … but tomorrow always arrives

Victims of success

Dense reading and Dense Listening

thinking broad and thinking detailed

Decisions ::: Topic work ::: Action plans ::: Communications

Google: global falling birth rate implications

… and at the same time ↓

Why good people still can’t get jobs #pdf

Will GE’s pension freeze help or hurt? #pdf

#reality check: the journeyS ahead ↓ are not going to be easy …

“For almost nothing (#fan — source)

in our educational systems

prepares people

for the #reality

in which they will live, work,

and become #effective” —

Peter Drucker




… and graduate school is much worse …

… “ not even educated in management ” … continue

Google search

Druckerism and intellectual capitalist #wlh #lms #education

Books by
Peter Drucker ::: Walter Wriston ::: Bob Buford ::: Rick Warren

How could an education system
prepare us
for unknown and unpredictable
future #realitieS? #ptf

Topics in books by Walter Wriston #ea #fastp ::: Transnational/Tribal

A Century of Social Transformation

… take more responsibility for himself or herself,
rather than depend on the company. continue

#ATTENTION: Preparing to SEE #adt

The Educational Revolution circa 1957 A sudden, sharp change
has occurred in the meaning and impact of
knowledge for society

#dinp Description is not #perception

Knowledge Economy and Knowledge Polity

 

 

#worldview
People of high #effectiveness are conspicuous by their absence in executive jobs continue

The Pentagon Papers ::: The Afghanistan Papers

 

 

“To say that most executives spend most of their time tackling the problems of today is euphemism.

They spend most of their time on the problems of yesterday.

Executives spend more of their time trying to unmake the past (here) than on anything else.” Druckerism

what exists is getting old

 

«§§§»

 

“We need judgement to find our way through life.

The danger is an excessive emphasis on rigid acceptances and rejections, and not enough attention to design.

#Design is a matter of putting things together to achieve an objective and to serve our values #svm.

Instead of searching for the standard solution we design a way forward.” — Edward de Bono

 

 

The explorer


JUDGEMENT

 

#ewtl

The patterning system of the brain

NO SURPRISES

Managing the Moron

 

 

“We can only move through life because the judgement of ‘recognition’ tells us at every moment

what things are;

what things to #seek; #lms

what things to #avoid; #lms

what things to #use as means to get other things. #lms

 

Without judgement we could not proceed at all .

The danger lies in the harsh, quick and rigid judgements that we require of ourselves and that are required by our traditional thinking habits .

 

Too often we use stereotypes to ease our judgement.

 

Too often we put up false either/or choices to force ourselves, or others, into a certain position .

 

All this is an integral part of the Gang of Three thinking system, with its emphasis on:

rejection of the ‘untruth’

the search for absolutes

and an inclusion/ exclusion box type of logic with the avoidance of contradiction.

 

This is an excellent system for many purposes but it has its limits and its dangers.

 

In a changing world the ‘boxes’ derived from the past may no longer be adequate to describe a changed present .

The dangers of judgement lie both in the rejection aspect and in the acceptance aspect .

 

Something rejected drops out of attention and perception .

It is no longer an ingredient in our thinking .

 

Something accepted may be accepted too wholeheartedly, when acceptance should be

milder ,  

doubtful or  

related to circumstances .

 

While acknowledging the practicality of simplistic black/white judgements, most people are coming to realize that the world does not work that way.

 

If you choose to take a black and white photograph of the world this does not mean that the world has no colors.

Instead of judgement the emphasis is on ‘design’ .

 

How do we put things together in order to satisfy our values and needs ?

 

Design may be much more difficult than judgement but the results will be better .

Many problems can be solved by analysis .

 

You identify the cause of the problem and then you seek to remove that cause .

 

 

But when the cause cannot be found or, if found, cannot be removed, then we are paralyzed because more and more #analysis will not solve that problem.

 

We need to be able to ‘design the way forward ’, leaving the cause in place .

#ihong While we are excellent at #analysis we are not nearly so expert at design — because design requires idea creativity .” continue

 

Judgement needs to be made OPERATIONAL

 

 

Parallel Thinking

 

 

Dealing with risk and uncertainty continue

 

Harnessing Everyday Genius?

 

 

#04 In navigating … ↑ ↓

“Your #thinking, choices, #decisions are determined by

what you’ve “SEEN” ↓

 

Not everything you’ve seen is equally valuable and there maybe contradictions

 

We live in the world WE SEE

 

“#Decision making ↑ #PDFs is a time machine (here)


that synchronizes into a single time — the present —

a great number of divergent time spans.” Druckerism

 

 

 

“Wisdom is about awareness ↑. #ptf ↓



If you know the road ↑, life is easier.
TLN insights


If you can see the road ↑ ↓, life is easier.

If you can discover new roads ↑ ↓, life is richer.

If you know you have a choice of roads ↑ ↓,

life is richer.” continue

 

Richard Branson

 

#tln #whtmal
“Making a living is no longer enough,” …
“Work also has to make a life.”
Druckerism ::: TLN insights ::: Managing oneself (calendarize this? #ams)

Successful careers are not planned … #ptf continue

 

Consider these observations ↑ from different points in time.
How could you make them operational? ↓

 

evidence wall and timeline larger ↓

#ewtl

… still thinking inside the box?

“one acts only upon what one is paying attention to …” ↑

 

Build on islands (a.k.a. small worlds) of health and strength

 

We are nowhere near the end of the turbulences,
the transformations, the sudden upsets #lter continue

Long years of profound change #ptf

And “The actual #results of (current) action are not predictable ↓” #ptf continue

“I have known many people who are
very clever indeed within their own fields
(even winning #Nobel prizes)
but not especially ‘wise’
outside their own fields of study.” — EDB

#reality assumptions ::: The Black Cylinder Experiment !!! #bce

Josh Abrams — lessons ::: Danger of too much planning

Annual review ::: Goal review

 

«§§§»

 

#01 How is it possible

to work toward

the “right horizonS” — the “right thingS” —

that aren’t on your mental radar ↓ …

#evidence-wall ↓

… at the right points in time? ↑ ↓

 

 

#02 How is it possible

to know

what goes on

behind closed doors? #wgobcd #surprises

 

 

Why not let Peter Drucker provide some awareness and insights?

#worldview

Is “right” something #dogmatic or something determined by a #situation? ↓

The images above suggest an answer and
there is a #connection to time spans

What exists is getting old ↑ (wip) ::: The future that has already happened ↑ (wip) #worldview

You have to be prepared for the abandonment of everything (#wgobcd) ↑

From Progress to Innovation ↑

The Shift To The Knowledge Society ↑

Handbook for the Positive Revolution

The explorer

rla exp.com = r eal l ife a dventures   from exp loration

The general intention: getting on down the road —
in YOUR life within TIME


employee development ↓




Judgement Needs to be Made Operational within time

#Thinking stages: exploring what to do → concluding → doing (#operacy) → back to stage 1

There are structureS to be considered in deciding what to do next ↓

 

“That knowledge has become THE resource ↑,
rather than a resource,
is what makes our society ‘post-capitalist.’


This fact changes — fundamentally —

the structure of society.


It creates new social and economic dynamics.


It creates new politics.” #knowledge ::: KEKP ::: MW

 

THIS ↑ MEANS IT HAS TO BE A SOCIETY OF ORGANIZATIONS ↓

 

«§§§»

 

Knowledge exists only in application
(… and not in school courses)

 

From Progress to #Innovation

Startup thinking ::: Entrepreneurs and Innovation

 

«§§§»

 

#tln #wlh #ns #surprises
NO SURPRISES ↓

 

#adt1
“One does not pay attention to everything.

And one acts only upon


what one is

paying #attention to. …

 

… The reaction
may be thinking or
it may be action (which is only thinking
that passes through our mouths
or our muscles instead of our minds).

The world around
is full of a huge number of things
to which one could pay attention.

But it would be impossible
to react to everything at once.

So one reacts only to a selected part of it.

#wlh The choice of attention area
determines the action
or thinking that follows.

The choice of this area of attention
is one of the most
fundamental aspects of thinking” #edb TLN Insights

The reaction is governed by ↓

 

The brain is a history library
that has to run in the future tense. continue

 

what exists is getting old

 

«§§§»

 

… “Another implication is that the performance of an #individual, an organization, an industry, a country,

 

in acquiring and applying #connect

 

KNOWLEDGE

 

will increasingly become THE key competitive factor —for career and earnings opportunities of the #individuals; for the performance, perhaps even the survival, of the individual organization; for an industry; and for a country. (#mtf)

About time (wip) ::: The future that has already happened (wip)

 

The knowledge society will inevitably become far more competitive than any society we have yet known — for the simple reason that with knowledge being universally accessible, there are no excuses for nonperformance.

There will be no “poor” countries.

There will only be ignorant countries.

And the same will be true for individual companies, individual industries, and individual organizations of any kind.

It will be true for the #individual, too.

In fact, developed societies have already become infinitely more competitive for the #individual than were the societies of the early twentieth century—let alone earlier societies, those of the nineteenth or eighteenth centuries.

Then, most people had no opportunity to rise out of the “class” into which they were born, with most #individuals following their fathers in their work and in their station in life.” continue and small worlds

Knowledge and technology #pdf

WW II as Three-dimensional Chess #pdf #sda #thinking #knowledge #technology

Joining technological frontiers #pdf #knowledge

How marriage became an outdated concept #pdf

 

#Hong Kong more recent

Google: McKinsey Asia

 

Knowledge as THE key resource is fundamentally different from any of the traditional key resources, that is, from land and labor, and even from capital.

It is not tied to any country.

It is transnational.

It is portable.

It can be created everywhere, fast, and cheaply.

Finally, it is, by definition, changing.

Knowledge always makes itself obsolete within a short period of time.

The one thing that is predictable about a competitive advantage based on knowledge —whether the advantage be that of a country, of an industry, of an institution (whether a business or a university), or of an #individual—is that the advantage will soon be challenged, and probably by a total newcomer.

#evidence-wall ↓

 

For that reason alone the acquisition of knowledge, that is, learning, can no longer stop at any age. continue

 

For an #individual, having a socially needed knowledge specialty is valuable — but #reality is not quite so simple

 

#thinkingcanvas ↓

Make Judgement Operational within time ↓

 

#wlh More than anything else, the #individual has to take more responsibility for himself or herself, rather than depend on the company — explored further down the page

#ewtl

#careerTimeView ↓ → knowledge industries, work, worker

Buford said Drucker passed on
three questions everyone should ask themselves during

different seasons of life:

“Who am I, now?” “Where do I belong?”

“What’s my contribution now?”

“Who I want to be tomorrow” — Thomas Crown 2:23

The danger of too much planning ::: Return on luck
Opportunities

 

What are the elements of work-life and career that need to be considered?

Google: Average company life span ::: Life expectancy of an institution

If you can see the road ahead — work-life time view #wisdom ↑ ↓ …

We live in the world WE SEE


#engagement?


Assumptions

Tactics (success) by Edward de Bono ::: People decisions

StrengthsFinder ::: Knowledge specialty evolution ::: Mojo :::
What Got You Here Won't Get You There ::: Managing Oneself a revolution …
The Second Half of One’s Life

Allocating your life

larger #careerTimeView ↑ ::: The walking dead

Opportunities ::: The return on luck

Build on islands (a.k.a. small worlds) of health and strength

#worldview #horizons It is time to give up thinking of jobs or career paths as we once did and think in terms of taking on assignments one after the other continue

Broad worldview ::: Danger of too much planning ::: Learning to learn ::: Seasonal changes #parallel

 

 

Know your strengths ::: The first #question to ask is what needs to be done ::: Every six months, ask yourself, what do I want to be remembered for? continue

 

You are the Twenty-first Century CEO of yourself

 

If you read only one management book OR Where do I begin to read Drucker? #whtmal

 

---

 

“To say that most executives spend most of their time tackling the problems of today is euphemism.

They spend most of their time on the problems of yesterday. (here)

Executives spend more of their time trying to unmake the past than on anything else.” Druckerism (what exists is getting old)

 

---

 

25 JAN — Reinvent Yourself

 

The following thought fragments are a part of
managing oneself — a revolution in human affairs

The concepts below imply the need for dense reading plus
thinking broad and thinking detailed

 

“Knowledge people must take responsibility
for their own
development #self-development
and placement.

 

In today’s society and organizations, people work increasingly with knowledge, rather than with skill.

 

Knowledge and skill differ in a fundamental characteristic — #skills change very, very slowly.

Knowledge, however, changes itself.

What different knowledge specialties ↑
were necessary in each broad situation?
What were their origins and evolution?

 

It makes itself obsolete ↑, and very rapidly.

 

A #knowledge worker becomes obsolescent ↑ if he or she does not go back to school every three or four years. continuing education

 

#ewtl


The individual in entrepreneurial society

 

This not only means that the equipment of learning, of knowledge, of skill, of experience that one acquires early is not sufficient for our present life time and working time ↓.

 

People change over such a long time span.

 

They become different persons with
different needs,
different abilities,
different perspectives,
and, therefore,
with a need
to “reinvent themselves.”

 

I quite intentionally use a stronger word than “revitalize.”

 

If you talk of fifty years of working life — and this, I think, is going to be increasingly the norm — you have to reinvent yourself.

 

You have to make something different out of yourself, rather than just find anew supply of energy.” — The Daily Drucker

 

The second-half of your life

 

---

 

“Quite simply, the values habit determines the whole value of the thinking (in real life).

Without values there is no value to the thinking. #svm

In real life values determine choices, decisions, success and failure” continue

 

---

 

#tinl “There is no law requiring one to think for oneself or to make one's own #ideas.

In important matters it is usually easier to accept other people's ideas ready-made and this saves one the trouble of doing any thinking for oneself — though one may still have to do it in minor matters.

Often one has no choice but to accept the ideas of others because thinking things out for oneself can be so difficult.

Education unfortunately provides little help in this matter.

You can probably remember things you were taught at school

about geography (valleys, river deltas, rice-growing countries, etc.) and

about history (dates of battles, names of kings, etc.).

But can you remember what you were taught about thinking?

Or is thinking something that one knows all about anyway — like walking or breathing?

The truth is that thinking is too important a matter to do anything about.

So we have left it to the philosophers who over the ages have amused themselves with the most intricate analyses which have little relevance to everyday life.

Some time ago a man (Rudolf Carnap), who was described as being one of the most influential philosophers of the century, died.

Influential on his fellow philosophers, but hardly on anyone else.

Just how much influence does logical positivism have on everyday thinking?” practical thinking

 

---

 

#14 #wb #worldview “Why bother?

Why didn’t somebody tell me?

 

This is a sensible phrase to cover a sensible strategy.

Go your own way.

Do your own thing.

Carve out a little niche in the complex world and then be happy and content in that niche.

Being worried about the rest of the world is too futile and too difficult a task.

Let those (the unreasonable man) who are motivated to change the world work on that task. #wgobcd

The world will always last long enough to see out your lifetime.

 

Century of social transformation

#wgobcd guttersnipes ::: The Alternative to Tyranny

#wgobcd The Forces Creating a New Geography of Opportunity?

How can the individual survive?

 

I am not going to disagree with this point of view but to side-step it in order to write for those who know that they are inseparably part of the world in which they live : their own internal world, the local community world and the world at large …

 

sidebar — #connections ↓

 

What goes on behind closed doors #wgobcd ↓

Freedom is not fun … guttersnipes

 

Your education has not prepared you …

 

Plenty of people will always be needed
who can bring only muscle to the job continue

 

The End of Loyalty

 

“The reasonable man
adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable man
persists in trying to
adapt the world to himself.

Therefore, all progress
depends on the unreasonable man.”
George Shaw

 

Dealing with risk and uncertainty

 

BROAD

 

Intelligence and PEOPLE BEHAVIOR #seek

 

More than an animal

 

Time-life navigation insights

 

Beware of the guttersnipes

 

Tomorrow always arrives

 

WHAT EXECUTIVES SHOULD REMEMBER (Audible)

 

How Much Labor Is Needed — and What Kind? #wgobcd continue

 

Managing oneself — a revolution in human affairs

 

#wlh A non-competitive life #aomt

 

Danger of too much planning

 

The responsibility based organization

 

We face long years of profound changes

 

Survival is competition

 

Living in a Lego™ world

 

Post-capitalist society has to be decentralized

 

Remembered for — a difference in the lives of people — A MAJOR HORIZON …

 

The Walking Dead

 

Alternative life directions

 

Ludecy

 

main brainroad continues ↓

 

… Let the others munch contentedly like cows in the field — happy that there is grass today.

 

My concern has always been with human thinking because this seems to me to play so central a #role in human happiness and development both from moment to moment and also over the longer term.

 

I believe that we have done relatively little about thinking but have been content with a fluency of argument and the ability to attack and defend positions.

 

This sort of thinking unfortunately lacks the creative, constructive and #design energies that we really need in order to go forward.

 

Indeed, our absurd emphasis on negativity seriously impedes such progress.

 

This particular book is not, however, about thinking habits and methods.

 

This book is about the fundamental background and setting in which we would use our thinking skills .

 

If we are disposed to be negative then our thinking skills will help us to be negative.

 

If we are disposed to be positive then our thinking skills will take us in that direction.

 

This is more than a moment to moment emotional bias — it is THE fundamental attitude of our being.

 

There are far too many people who believe that natural evolution controlled by critical negativity will form the #ideas that we need — just as Darwinian evolution perfected a variety of life forms.

 

This is a dangerous fallacy.

 

Evolution is very slow, very messy, very wasteful and is incapable of making the best use of available resources.

Inadequate — but not disastrous — #ideas and #institutions will #survive, perfect and defend themselves thus preventing the more effective use of resources.

 

sidebar — #connections ↓

 

The Second Curve

Amazon → How the Mighty Fall — Stages: 1 Hubris Born of Success; 2 Undisciplined Pursuit of More; 3 Denial of Risk and Peril Stage; 4 Grasping for Salvation; 5 Capitulation to Irrelevance or Death.

Every institution, no matter how great, is vulnerable to decline.

There is no law of nature that the most powerful will inevitably remain at the top.

Anyone can fall and most eventually do.

Tomorrow always arrives
and it is always different

 

main brainroad continues ↓

 

… That has always been the logical basis for revolution.

 

This book is intended for those who see this logical need.

 

There is a useful place for negativity  

in changing values;   #svm

in providing shaping pressures;  

in curbing excesses;  

in removing defects in order to improve an idea; and  

in forming the conscience of society.

 

But the constructive and creative energies have to be there in order to get the steady, step by step progress that is the basis of the positive revolution. …

 

A revolution in every generation
is not the answer

 

Management Worldview(S)

 

… How we generate these constructive energies is what the positive revolution is about . ” Handbook for the Positive Revolution

 

Beware of boredom

Josh Abrams → allocating one’s life

Starting small fires

Beware of waisting time and energy on good intentions and “good causes”

 

 

A few people
(not everyone)
higher up your LIFE food chain
may be observing your worldview and behavior

 

 

#31 #fastp #tln #wlh #ea

#31 Pieces of the Puzzle #fastp #connect

A person is sitting down at a table with all the pieces of a puzzle on the table before him.

The task is to complete the puzzle.

The intelligent person may complete that puzzle rather quickly.

When all the pieces of the puzzle are given there is a skill in seeing how they fit together.

 

But in most #situations the pieces of the puzzle are not given.

Seeing only part of the situation

The explorer

JUDGEMENT → Attention-directing frameworks

Before long
new puzzle pieces emerge
while existing pieces change, age, and disappear
#ewtl

The patterning system of the brain

Learning to learn

 

You have to find and select the pieces.

 

Most #situations are open-ended not closed-ended.

 

Information challenges

 

Mistakes in Perception

 

Ludecy

 

Six Frames for Thinking About Information

 

Connect, connect, connect

 

The intelligence needed to find and select the pieces is not the same as the intelligence needed to put pre-selected pieces together.

Brain-addresses in books by Peter Drucker

Topics in books by Walter Wriston

Making connections

 

Intelligence may be very good

at ‘understanding’ things

but is not necessarily so good

at ‘designing’ or‘doing’ things.

finding and selecting the pieces of the puzzle

Different skills are needed for the different #situations. — EDB

 

↑ Same for knowledgeS

 

Intelligence Information Thinking #pdf

An exploration path designed for finding the pieces

 

 

 

 

Education

“Education teaches reading, writing, arithmetic and a lot of knowledge (information).

The reading, writing and arithmetic are basic skills which everyone needs to survive in society — and to contribute.

 

There is, however, a skill missing from traditional education.

 

This is the skill of thinking.

 

I do not mean thinking in the sense of argument or #analysis but thinking in the sense of '#effectiveness'. explore

 

This is the thinking needed to get things done : objectives, priorities, alternatives, other people's views, idea creativity, decisions, choices, planning, #consequences of action.

 

We have literacy and numeracy but we need 'operacy' or the skill of doing.

Many years ago I designed the #CoRT thinking lessons for the deliberate and direct teaching of thinking as a school subject.

These lessons are now widely used throughout the world with several countries making them compulsory in all schools.

There is increasing use of the lessons in the USA, Canada and Australia and a more limited use in China and Malaysia.

Intelligence is a potential just like the horsepower of a car.

To use that potential the driver needs to develop skill.

That is the skill of thinking.

Education must teach #effectiveness.

#Knowledge (#information) is not enough.

Knowledge without effectiveness can be very dangerous.

It can mean that the people with knowledge get into positions of power and do not know how to be effective.

The new education of the positive revolution must teach the thinking skills necessary for #effectiveness, leadership and the skills of dealing with other people.” — Handbook for the Positive Revolution

 

 

#wlh #apta
Language is an encyclopedia of ignorance

 

“Language has been the biggest help in human progress.

Language is now by far the biggest barrier to human progress.

If language has indeed been the biggest help to human progress, how can it now be the biggest barrier?

Language has enabled the human species to move ahead of primates even though there is only a tiny difference in genetic DNA.

Language has allowed communication and therefore cooperation.

Language has allowed the storing of knowledge (a.k.a. #information) , so that future generations can benefit from the learning and wisdom of past generations.

Language allows the formulation and expression of thoughts.

Language allows competent and subtle descriptions.

 

So how can language now be the biggest barrier to human progress?

 

Any self-organizing system like human thought and human language reaches a stable equilibrium state (sometimes called a local equilibrium).

It is very difficult to budge from this state because any change seems inferior.

Landmarks of Tomorrow

The Manager and the Moron

So we are sucked back to the equilibrium state.

That is why changes in language are so slow and so difficult.

COMPLEX WORLD

Purely on this system basis it is inevitable that language will reach a complacent ‘stable’ state and will become more and more inadequate at describing an increasingly complex world.

So language may indeed have been the biggest help towards human progress up to this point in time.

It may also be the biggest barrier to further progress.

A child’s clothes are important and suitable, but the child eventually grows out of them.

The clothes remain wonderful, but their value is changed.

Trainer wheels on a bicycle are essential until you learn to ride the bicycle — but a hindrance thereafter.

The apparent contradiction can also be resolved in another way.

Language as a general concept remains as valuable as it has always been.

At the same time, our current language is a barrier to progress.

That is why my book ( The De Bono Code Book: Going Beyond the Limits of Language ) needed to be written.

Language is an encyclopedia of ignorance.

Words and concepts enter language at a state of relative ignorance (relative to our current knowledge).

Luther, Machiavelli, and the Salmon

These perceptions are frozen into permanence with a language word.

So we are forced to perceive the world in a very old-fashioned way.

It is for precisely this reason that language has become a barrier to human progress.

For example, the perception of ‘profit’ has severely limited the social development of business and value creation in society.

Why, then, have we not been able to develop the new concepts and perceptions that are needed?

The answer to this question is the key element in the book, which is published by Viking this month.

We have not developed new perceptions or complex perceptions because our ability to describe in words is so superb that we feel we can describe any #situation perfectly well with the existing language.

This is a dangerous and fatal mistake because description and perception are two different things.” — EDB

 

 

Afterword: The Descent of Money by Niall Ferguson

Today’s financial world is the result of four millennia of economic evolution. #second-curve

Money — the crystallized relationship between debtor and creditor begat banks, clearing houses for ever larger aggregations of borrowing and lending.

From the thirteenth century onwards, government bonds introduced the securitization of streams of interest payments; while bond markets revealed the benefits of regulated public markets for trading and pricing securities.

From the seventeenth century, equity in corporations could be bought and sold in similar ways.

From the eighteenth century, insurance funds and then pension funds exploited economies of scale and the laws of averages to provide financial protection against calculable risk.

From the nineteenth, futures and options offered more specialized and sophisticated instruments: the first derivatives.

And, from the twentieth, households were encouraged, for political reasons, to increase leverage and skew their portfolios in favor of real estate.

Economies that combined all these institutional innovations banks, bond markets, stock markets, insurance and property-owning democracy performed better over the long run than those that did not, because financial intermediation generally permits a more efficient allocation of resources than, say, feudalism or central planning.

For this reason,it is not wholly surprising that the Western financial model tended to spread around the world, first in the guise of imperialism, then in the guise of globalization.’

From ancient Mesopotamia to present-day China, in short, the ascent of money has been one of the driving forces behind human progress: a complex process of innovation, intermediation and integration that has been as vital as the advance of science or the spread of law in mankind’s escape from the drudgery of subsistence agriculture and the misery of the Malthusian trap. (Malthusianism is the idea that population growth is potentially exponential while the growth of the food supply or other resources is linear.)

In the words of former Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin, ‘the financial system [is] the brain of the economy …

It acts as a coordinating mechanism that allocates capital, the lifeblood of economic activity, to its most productive uses by businesses and households.

If capital goes to the wrong uses or does not flow at all, the economy will operate inefficiently, and ultimately economic growth will be low.’

#idea Yet money’s ascent has not been, and can never be, a smooth one.

On the contrary, financial history is a roller-coaster ride of ups and downs, bubbles and busts, manias and panics, shocks and crashes.

One recent study of the available data for gross domestic product and consumption since 1870 has identified 148 crises in which a country experienced a cumulative decline in GDP of at least 10 per cent and eighty-seven crises in which consumption suffered a fall of comparable magnitude, implying a probability of financial disaster of around 3.6 per cent per year.

Even today, despite the unprecedented sophistication of our institutions and instruments, Planet Finance remains as vulnerable as ever to crises.

… snip, snip …

Keynes went on to hypothesize about the ways in which investors ‘manage in such circumstances to behave in a manner which saves our faces as rational, economic men’:

(1) We assume that the present is a much more serviceable guide to the future than candid examination of past experience would show it to have been hitherto.

In other words we largely ignore the prospect of future changes about the actual character of which we know nothing.

(2) We assume that the existing state of opinion as expressed in prices and the character of existing output is based on a correct summing up of future prospects …

(3) Knowing that our own individual judgment is worthless, we endeavor to fall back on the judgment of the rest of the world which is perhaps better informed.

That is, we endeavor to conform with the behavior of the majority or the average.’

Though it is far from clear that Keynes was correct in his interpretation of investors’ behavior, he was certainly thinking along the right lines.

… snip, snip …

This brings us to the second reason for the inherent instability of the financial system: human behavior.

As we have seen, all financial institutions are at the mercy of our innate inclination to veer from euphoria to despondency; our recurrent inability to protect ourselves against ‘tail risk’ our perennial failure to learn from history.

… snip, snip …

If any field has the potential to revolutionize our understanding of the way financial markets work, it must surely be the burgeoning discipline of behavioral finance.

It is far from clear how much of the body of work derived from the efficient markets hypothesis can survive this challenge.

Those who put their faith in the ‘wisdom of crowds’ mean no more than that a large group of people is more likely to make a correct assessment than a small group of supposed experts.

But that is not saying much.

The old joke that ‘Macroeconomists have successfully predicted nine of the last five recessions is not so much a joke as a dispiriting truth about the difficulty of economic forecasting.

Meanwhile, serious students of human psychology will expect as much madness as wisdom from large groups of people.”

A case in point must be the near-universal delusion among investors in the first half of 2007 that a major liquidity crisis could not occur (see Introduction).

To adapt an elegant summation by Eliezer Yudkowsky:

People may be overconfident and over-optimistic.

They may focus on overly specific scenarios for the future, to the exclusion of all others.

They may not recall any past liquidity crises in memory.

They may overestimate the predictability of the past, and hence underestimate the surprise of the future.

They may not realize the difficulty of preparing for [liquidity crises] without the benefit of hindsight.

They may prefer … gambles with higher payoff probabilities, neglecting the value of the stakes.

They may conflate positive information about the benefits of a technology [e-g.bond insurance] and negative information about its risks.

They may be contaminated by movies where the [financial system] ends up being saved … Or the extremely unpleasant prospect of [a liquidity crisis] may spur them to seek arguments that [liquidity] will not [dry up], without an equally frantic search for reasons why [it should].

But if the question is, specifically, “Why aren’t more people doing something about it?’, one possible component is that people are asking that very question — darting their eyes around to see if anyone else is reacting … meanwhile trying to appear poised and unflustered.

Most of our cognitive warping is, of course, the result of evolution.

… snip, snip …

Thorstein Veblen first posed the question ‘Why is Economics Not an Evolutionary Science?’ (implying that it really should be) as long ago as 1898.

In a famous passage in his Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy , which could equally well apply to finance, Joseph Schumpeter characterized industrial capitalism as ‘an evolutionary process’: This evolutionary character is not merely due to the fact that economic life goes on in a social and natural environment which changes and by its change alters the data of economic action; this fact is important and these changes (wars, revolutions and so on) often condition industrial change, but they are not its prime movers.

Nor is this evolutionary character due to quasi-autonomic increase in population and capital or to the vagaries of monetary systems of which exactly the same thing holds true.

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers’ goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates …

The opening up of new markets, foreign or domestic, and the organizational development from the craft shop and factory to such concerns as US Steel illustrate the same process of industrial mutation — if may use the biological term — that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.

This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism.

A key point that emerges from recent research is just how much destruction goes on in a modern economy.

Around one in ten US companies disappears each year.

Between 1989 and 1997, to be precise, an average of 611,000 businesses a year vanished out of a total of 5.73 million firms.

Ten per cent is the average extinction rate, it should be noted; in some sectors of the economy it can rise as high as 20 per cent in a bad year (as in the District of Columbia’s financial sector in 1989, at the height of the Savings and Loans crisis).

According to the UK Department of Trade and Industry, 30 per cent of tax-registered businesses disappear after three years.

Even if they survive the first few years of existence and go on to enjoy great success, most firms fail eventually.

Of the world’s 100 largest companies in 1912, 29 were bankrupt by 1995, 48 had disappeared, and only 19 were still in the top 100.

Given that a good deal of what banks and stock markets do is to provide finance to companies, we should not be surprised to find a similar pattern of creative destruction in the financial world.

We have already noted the high attrition rate among hedge funds.

(The only reason that more banks do not fail, as we shall see, is that they are explicitly and implicitly protected from collapse by governments.)

… snip, snip …

I remain more than ever convinced that, until we fully understand the origin of financial species, we shall never understand the fundamental truth about money: that, far from being ‘a monster that must be put back in its place’, as the German president recently complained,” financial markets are like the mirror of mankind, revealing every hour of every working day the way we value ourselves and the resources of the world around us.

It is not the fault of the mirror if it reflects our blemishes as clearly as our beauty. full text

 

 

What about feelings and values? #svm

You may believe that feelings and values are the most important things in life.

You are right.

That is why thinking is so very important.

 

The purpose of thinking is to deliver to you the values you #seek just as the purpose of a bicycle is to get you to where you want to go.

A bicycle uses less energy; gets you there faster and allows you to go much further.

So thinking allows you to enjoy your values more effectively.

 

You are locked in a room.

You desperately want to get out.

You want freedom.

Your feelings are very strong.

Which is the more useful, this very strong feeling or a key to the lock?

 

Feelings without the means to carry them out are not much good.

At the same time, the key without the desire to leave the room is also not much good.

 

We need values, feelings and thinking.

Feeling is no substitute for thinking.

Thinking without values is aimless. Allocating your life

 

This book is about thinking.

Values and feelings are equally important but insufficient without thinking. the manager and the moron

About thinking and 12 principles ↓

Thinking takes place along a time line
leading toward unimagined futures

Reality assumptions ::: The Black Cylinder Experiment !!!

 

What Everybody Knows Is Frequently Wrong ::: If You Keep Doing What Worked in the Past You’re Going to Fail ::: Approach Problems with Your Ignorance — Not Your Experience ::: Develop Expertise Outside Your Field to Be an Effective Manager ::: Outstanding Performance Is Inconsistent with Fear of Failure ::: You Must Know Your People to Lead Them ::: People Have No Limits, Even After Failure ::: Base Your Strategy on the #Situation, Not on a Formula — A Class With Drucker: The Lost Lessons of the World's Greatest Management Teacher

 

To aid in

the relentless

necessary

navigating,

this page (#sda) provides

#11 a jumble of ↓

CONCEPTs (about #concepts),

thought fragmentS, thought clusterS,

brain-addresseS & clueS

that can be used as

HORIZONs and BUILDING BLOCKs ↓
Freedom etal. ::: TLN insights

… to #SEE (attention-scape) … ↓

… and CONSIDER (what does a thought area ↓ ↑ mean 4 you?)

— much more like a “future” museum or menu
than an article. ↓

There are things to #avoid

and

things → ( horizons and building blocks )

to seek out #horizons #seek

and make operational ↓ #ams

within time

The explorer

Judgement Needs to be Made Operational #operacy

“Brain-addresses” ↑ provide a concept for recording targets for repeated deliberate thinking
#ams #ir #dtao #thinkingworkbook

finding and selecting the pieces of the puzzle

Larger view ↑ What exists is getting old

↑ finding and selecting the pieces of the puzzle #fastp

Knowledge-Based Management

Tom Peters → The project50

Navigating changing worldS
involves “moving on” ↓

what exists is getting old

Finding a way forward from yesterdayS

Without “moving on”

a person remains a prisoner of the past —

their pastS and other people in their prisons of their pastS.



These pastS are complex constellationS and universeS

of ageS and pointS in time —

age 21 in 1950 vs. age 21 in 1970.

Imagining navigation course changes ↑ ↓ #thinkingcanvas

↑ #05 Everybody is born totally ignorant



and get their #guidance from somebody

who was also born totally ignorant and

who got their guidance from somebody (Twitter → @NewsLitProject)

who acts on the assumption that tomorrowS

are extrapolationS of yesterdayS —

despite the massive obvious evidence to the contrary (ludecy) ↓


Perception provides the ingredients for thinking
Escaping the kiddy table

Imagining navigation course changes

What about guidance from topic area experts?

Experts, chapter 2, “The 10,000-Hour Rule” Outliers

Which #experts control #reality? #lms

(Those associated with a university, a consulting firm,
or an operational institution …

or those with an exalted station in life …

or economists who ignore aspects of #reality (#pdf)
that don’t fit their prior preaching …

or lying politicians and other dogmatists …

What about mental health experts? …

What did Machiavelli say?)

Experts speak

Which of these ↑ have a #broad #worldview

and what would a broad worldview look like?

And where would Management Worldview(S) fit?

#Intelligence #Information #Thinking ↓

#evidence-wall ↓

Larger ↑ ::: Awareness ::: Post-capitalist executive ::: The Daily Drucker

Drucker book search

Imagining navigation course changes

Those who want to live a #fulfilling life …

How can you work toward
the “right horizons” — the “right things” —
that aren't on your mental radar
at the right points in time? ↑ ↓

Knowledge specialty ::: The #individual in entrepreneurial society ::: Return on luck ::: Danger of too much planning

Managing Oneself Overview

The responsibility based organization ::: Survival (#mtf) ::: Next society

#tln Time-life navigation ^© ↑ ↓ is NEEDED #lms #ams

#horizons That man must die …

Remembered for — a difference in the lives of people — A MAJOR HORIZON … #horizons #tln #uf

 

#06 #awp In your whole life,

how much time

have you spent

“trying to” #see

the content and the dynamics of society and the economy?

What were your #information sources?

How has the content and structure of the economy and society changed over time? #intelligence

 

#thinkingcanvas or #mindmap /mind map ↓ for collecting #ideas

How do you explain an event you cannot understand? continue

#07 #awp At what point in your life
did someone
with a broad,
top of the food chain worldview (#lter)
provide you
a breadcrumb trail
for navigating a changing world —
a world continuing to move toward unimagined futureS. How many
major global institutions (#wgobcd) look to this person for guidance on
making THEIR futureS? #connect

Replace the quest for success
with the quest for contribution.

The #critical #question is not,
“How can I achieve?”

but “What can I contribute?”
… to the society of organizations

Try searching this page for the word stem “contribut”

#careerTimeView ↓ #thinkingcanvas

Copying a predecessor’s work approach will lead to the prison of the past

Tactics (success) by Edward de Bono

What does it take to be an expert?

It is time to give up thinking of jobs or career paths as we once did and
think in terms of taking on assignments one after the other continue

Buford said Drucker passed on
three questions everyone should ask themselves during

different seasons of life:

“Who am I, now?” “Where do I belong?”

“What’s my contribution now?”

“Who I want to be tomorrow” — Thomas Crown 2:23

The danger of too much planning ::: Return on luck
Opportunities

↑ Near-term ecological awareness #ntea :::
Purposeful self-development and parallel approach #psdapa #parallel #mbr :::
Jump before you have to #jump ::: Long-term ecological revolution #lter :::
Deliberate thinking (#pdf) and #operacy #dtao ↓

Where to jump next? ↓ No stable places #lter

Connect, connect, connect

#ntea

#ptf Flash Gordon and Ming the Merciless ↓

↑ Space travel — circa 1940s — vs. the various versions of Starship Enterprise
What exists is getting old #lter

Why do “things” exist? ↑ Why do they die?

horizon evolution stages #hes

Action system (harvesting and implementing) #thinkingcanvas #lms #ams ↓ larger view #ntea ↑ ↓

↑ finding and selecting the pieces of the puzzle #fastp

Knowledge-Based Management

What exists is getting old

The thoughts you encounter as you move through time
need to be integrated into your unfolding life.

This implies that you need an idea recorder tool,
a review process and a thinking and scheduling mechanism.

One acts (#intelligence #information #thinking) only upon
what one is paying attention to explore

For example: Power of an Hour ::: de Bono books ::: Drucker books

Brain dangers: try a #page-search for → past or synonyms for past or brainstorming or brain or mind or ignorance

«§§§»

#tcd In navigating … ↓

“Your #thinking, choices, #decisions are determined by

what you’ve SEEN” ↓

#decision or #decisions

Attention is a key part of thinking

one acts only upon what one is paying attention to

Perception provides the ingredients for thinking

“#Decision making ↑ is a time machine (here)

that synchronizes into a single time — the present —
a great number of divergent time spans.” Druckerism

time spans larger view ↓

Dealing with risk and uncertainty

#ntea

We can make decisions only in the present,

and yet
we cannot make decisions
for the present alone;

the most expedient, most opportunistic decision — let alone

the decision not to decide at all —

may commit us for a long time,

if not permanently and irrevocably.” — Chapter 11, MRE by Druckerism

“Most discussions of decision-making
assume that only senior executives
make decisions or that only senior executives
decisions matter.
This is a dangerous mistake.” — PFD

evidence wall and timeline larger ↓

#ewtl

#Decision Making: The Chassis That Holds the Whole Together ↑ ↓

#sda
“To know something,
to really understand

something important,

one must look at it

from s ixteen d ifferent a ngles ↓.”
#sda important = #impact #druckerism #thinkingcanvas #mindmap continue

People are perceptually slow,
and there is no shortcut to understanding;
it takes a great deal of time.” read more ↓

“If you do not care to
understand

something,

then you must borrow an explanation
from someone else (and they will deceive you)
or do without one.” continue

… “expert systems” are about;
they attempt to put into … process,
the perception of experience
that comes from understanding the whole
of a task or subject matter … continue

«§§§»

“For almost nothing (#fan — source)

in our educational systems

prepares people

for the #reality

in which they will live, work,

and become #effective” —



… and graduate school is much worse …

… “ not even educated in management ” … continue

Google search

Druckerism and intellectual capitalist #lms #education

Books by
Peter Drucker ::: Walter Wriston ::: Bob Buford ::: Rick Warren

How could an education system prepare us
for unknown and unpredictable future #realitieS?

Science has been in a “replication crisis” for a decade

Topics in books by Walter Wriston ::: Transnational/Tribal

A Century of Social Transformation

… take more responsibility for himself or herself,
rather than depend on the company. continue

Intelligence, Information, Thinking

«§§§»

“#Thinking is the most fundamental of all human skills.

The quality of our future will depend directly
on the quality of our thinking.

Is it then not only astonishing but also absurd that thinking
is not the core subject in all #education
and the central subject on any school curriculum” #EDB explore

«§§§»

Thinking … the most fundamental,

the most important aspect of life,

the basis for everything

is totally neglected …

School : no thinking subject —

Book store : no thinking category

Universities : no thinking faculty
and zero possibility thinking

What about critical thinking?

— #edb Edward de Bono

 

What I do think is important is the recognition of a type of thinking that is not dominated by language. …


They are 'idea pictures' which represent relationships, functions and happenings, not physical reality. … …


Unfortunately we do not have non-verbal images for complex situations. …


The reason is that we have never experienced such situations with any 'sense'. …


We have only recognized them intellectually, so there is no sense-image storage. …


The specific, and perhaps too bold, purpose of this book is to create a repertoire of just such nonverbal sense-images for management situations.explore

 

 

 

#research “There is, of course, a place for academic intellectualizing and passive scholarship (which consists of repeating what others have repeated about still yet others) but that is only a small part of thinking — but valuable nevertheless.” EDB

«§§§»

“We know only two things about the future ↑.
It cannot be known.
It will be different from what exists now and
from what we now expect” ↓ Druckerism

“Data analytics” does not alter the assertion above

(why the #analysis of data
can never produce all the #ideas
present in that data and
try a #page-search for the word stem “innovat” #innovation)

#msd = means something different
#ptf #sda

“The really important things —
as usual
in an attempt to analyze
and to predict —
are changes
which the author
when writing the book
fully saw
but failed to perceive,
fully recognized
but failed to understand.

What makes predicting the future
so certain of failure
is not
that the unexpected
always happens.

It is that the expected
#msd always MEANS
something
so very different.

The most disappointed man
is always
the prophet whose vision has come true,
the pioneer who has reached the new frontier,
the explorer who has found the new continent.” —

The New Society: The Anatomy of Industrial Order (1950)

↑ If you can see the road ahead ↓

MEANS? What does it mean
if a person's house burns down?
To the owner? occupants? neighbors?
emergency services? community? financial services? etc.

The brain is a history library
that has to run in the future tense continue

what exists is getting old

Intelligence Information Thinking #pdf

Making the future (#mtf) — a chance for survival →
one ::: two ::: three

We face long years of profound changes ↑

Managing oneself — a revolution in human affairs continue

A non-competitive life

The alternative is to be someone else’s whipping boy

«§§§»

This page (#sda) provides a coping tool ↑ for
directing one’s energy toward “present” opportunitieS
to make the future
rather than toward the dead past

«§§§»

“What Everybody Knows Is Frequently Wrong” continue

“If You Keep Doing What Worked in the Past You're Going to Fail

Approach Problems with Your Ignorance — Not Your Experience

Base Your Strategy on the #Situation, Not on a Formula” Druckerisms

#evidence-wall ↓

The Five Deadly Sins

What economist still need to learn #pdf

Don’t balme economics blame public policy #pdf

The Meritocracy Muddle #pdf

What divides NATO? #pdf

Germany’s divided soul #pdf

«§§§»

“Alternatives do not have to show themselves” ↓ #EDB

«§§§»

“Life-long learning” → Learning what ← from whom → to do what?

And what is useful learning?

The individual in entrepreneurial society

«§§§»